Xinhua Commentary: “Garbage time of history” narrative underestimates resilience of Chinese economy

Editor’s note: “Dumping overcapacity on global markets,” “the garbage time of history,” “economic malaise making people fatter” … A bunch of newly-coined concepts or unconventional observations regarding the world’s second-largest economy have been spread widely, triggering fear, confusion and pessimism. Are they logically sound, well-founded and truly predictive of the future, or just over-exaggeration based on misperception or even deliberate talking-down out of deep-seated bias? This week Xinhua is releasing a series of three economic commentaries regarding this, and the following is the second piece.
BEIJING, Oct. 3 (Xinhua) — Recent Western media reports have described China’s current economic state as entering the “garbage time of history,” suggesting that China’s economy has peaked and its growth model is now exhausted.
Notably, many proponents of this argument are the same voices behind the earlier “Peak China” and “China collapse” narratives, demonstrating a persistent bias.
The term “garbage time,” borrowed from sports to indicate a period when defeat is inevitable, misinterprets China’s development by relying on the flawed assumption that China’s development is a zero-sum competition with other nations.
In reality, China’s development strategy is self-driven, focusing on self-improvement rather than undermining others. This approach stands in stark contrast to the Western model, often characterized by expansion, suppression and a relentless pursuit of dominance.
The Chinese people have always pursued their own path toward national rejuvenation and modernization, a journey akin to a marathon, requiring resilience, perseverance and sustained effort.
At no point in its development has China experienced a “garbage time” — not during the early stages of economic reform in the late 1970s, not during the COVID-19 pandemic when the global economy was crippled, and certainly not now as the world grapples with trade fragmentation, protectionism and geopolitical conflicts.
Such fact-blind “garbage time” claims obscure the public’s understanding of China’s economic trajectory and fail to acknowledge the improved quality and momentum in its emerging sectors. While China may no longer achieve the double-digit GDP growth of previous decades, this by no means signals the end of its economic development. Instead, the country is transitioning to a model of high-quality growth.
No longer reliant solely on traditional drivers like labor, investment and land, China’s economy is now increasingly propelled by technological advancements such as information technology, artificial intelligence, new energy, aerospace and bio-tech.
A report from the Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development reveals that China’s national innovation index rose to 10th in the world in 2023, climbing three places from the previous year, making it the only developing country to enter the top 15.
Since last year, China has achieved a series of technological milestones, including the maiden commercial flight of the domestic large aircraft C919 and the completion of the world’s first 16-megawatt offshore wind turbine.
China’s economic data for the first half of 2024 underscores the strength of its new growth drivers. Production of service robots and new energy vehicles surged by 22.8 percent and 34.3 percent, respectively, while investment in high-tech manufacturing grew by 10.1 percent, significantly outpacing the 3.9 percent headline growth of fixed-asset investment.
The argument that non-capitalist systems are doomed to fail, as suggested by the “garbage time” narrative, is a Western-centric viewpoint that overlooks the diversity of economic systems that can and do thrive.
China’s track record of sustained economic development has proved that Chinese policymakers never surrender to adversities. They proactively address challenges and consistently find solutions to overcome obstacles.
Over the past few decades, China has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, a feat unparalleled in human history.
Another notable example is China’s commitment to climate action. Contrary to concerns that it would hinder the global climate response, the country has emerged as an industrial leader in solar and wind power and battery technology, establishing itself as a powerhouse in the global energy transition.
The digital shift in China’s manufacturing sector reflects the Chinese government’s proactive approach to policymaking and pushing industrial upgrades.
There are now over 1.5 million robots in use across Chinese factories, twice the number in Europe. In 2023, China accounted for more than half of all new industrial robots installed worldwide, according to the International Federation of Robotics.
Throughout four decades of reform and opening up, despite a steady stream of dire predictions, China’s economy has repeatedly defied the odds and outperformed expectations, proving the pessimists wrong time and again.
Therefore, it is only fitting and proper to view the current period as a critical transition. The Chinese government is aware of the need to reform and adjust, and measures are already being implemented to bolster growth and address issues.
The country’s newly announced 300-strong reform measures, covering areas such as innovation, market opening up, fiscal reform, capital markets and public services, clearly demonstrate a resilient system, not one on the verge of collapse.
Following the end of the Cold War, American scholar Francis Fukuyama put forth the theory of “the end of history,” believing mankind’s ideological evolution had come to an end with the “triumph” of the Western liberal democracy. But now he had to admit that the theory itself could be facing an end. This could be a good lesson for those now spreading the narrative of “the garbage time of history” about China. ■